Waking up to Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire:
Nate Silver now projects President Obama’s margin of victory to be two or three percentage points in the popular vote, approximating the margin that George W. Bush achieved in defeating John Kerry in 2004.
In addition, he gives Obama a 91.6% chance to win the necessary 270 electoral votes for re-election.
John Avlon: “The final polls are out and behind the national horserace is a fascinating dynamic — Mitt Romney is narrowly winning independent voters while President Obama is winning centrist voters by a nearly 20-point margin.”
“This is significant because in past elections independents and centrist voters have been largely synonymous-overlapping cohorts, reflecting the belief of many independents that the two parties are too polarized and disproportionately dominated by their respective special interests. But what I think we’re seeing this year is the extended impact of the tea party – a growth in the number of independent conservatives that has moved the overall independent voting block slightly to the right. In turn, centrist voters are more likely to vote for Obama precisely because of the polarizing impact of the tea party and the intransigence of many conservative congressmen when it came to working in a good faith spirit of principled compromise with the Obama administration.”
OK… I’m off for my morning appointments (gee…how do people get up this early?). – Bill
- FiveThirtyEight: Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com)
- US elections: after the campaign, the hush of polling day descends (guardian.co.uk)
- Centrists Embrace Obama (thedailybeast.com)
Romney’s campaign ”belief that it’s about the economy and only the economy, and that they need to keep telling us stupid voters that it’s only about the economy, has gone from being an annoying tick to a dangerous self-delusion.”
Always interesting when a fairly extreme neocon points a finger at Romney’s treatment of potential voters.
- Quote of the Day: Conservative Bill Kristol on Romney’s Campaign (themoderatevoice.com)
- Conservatives Sounding Alarm Bells: Romney Campaign’s Missteps Leave Supporters Anxious (mediaite.com)
- BILL KRISTOL: Dukakis, Kerry, . . . Romney? “Adopting a prevent defense when it’s only the second … (pjmedia.com)
- Romney as Dukakis and Kerry (politicalwire.com)
- Trouble in Mitt Romney’s paradise (dailykos.com)
- Conservatives worrying about Romney (salon.com)
Who is joining hands with all the truly religious in America by following the last three or four decades of political history?
Look at every race that’s been run over the past forty, thirty years, and you will see a divide between George Bush and Al Gore, between George Bush and John Kerry, between John McCain and Barack Obama, between people who go to church and people who don’t … We are the party that believe in values.
- Rick Santorum’s Republican math (dailykos.com)
- Rick Santorum: All For Me, Not For Thee Or Charity (crooksandliars.com)
- Rick Santorum Makes the Bizarre Promise to Never Speak the Name of Any Former President [Rick Santorum] (jezebel.com)
- Look At Rick Santorum’s Inbox (huffingtonpost.com)
- 31 Rick Santorum Quotes That Prove He Would Be A Destructive President | Addicting Info (tribuneofthepeople.com)