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Morning report on swing state polls… With afternoon update
Here are the latest polls from the battleground. These will be updated when more numbers are available:
Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49% (Gravis)
Michigan: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Foster McCollum)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)
Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)New Hampshire: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Lake Research)
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 44% (Time)
Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)
Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Lake Resaearch)
Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 43% (Old Dominion
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Newsmax/Zogby)
Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)
Wow. Four different pollsters give Ohio to Obama. The word on early voting is that it’s 2 to 1 in Obama’s favor.
Only 12 days left to the official election day.
This morning’s first swing state polls:
Here are the latest polls from the battleground:
How about Electoral Vote and Senate predictions…
Nevada: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (American Research Group)
New Hampshire: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (American Research Group)
Both of these show changes: Romney up in New Hampshire and Obama leading in Nevada. Also, remember: 270 Electoral votes to win.
When more of these polls come out today I will make them available either in a new post or updating this one.
Related articles
- Obama up in battleground New Hampshire (politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com)
Average of Swing State Polls w/electoral votes for this morning:
| RCP Poll Average | Electoral Votes | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| States | Obama | Romney | Obama | Romney |
| Colo. |
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| Fla. |
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| Iowa |
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| Nev. |
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| N.H. |
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| N.C. |
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| Ohio |
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| Va. |
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| Wis. |
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| Swing-State Votes |
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| Leaning/Likely State Votes |
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| Total Overall Electoral Votes |
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Related articles
- Chance of Split Electoral, Popular Vote Very Real (politicalwire.com)
- Why Ohio is the most important state in the country (washingtonpost.com)
- Campaign Moves into Final Phase, Driven by Electoral Math (swampland.time.com)
- Obama Behind the Eight Ball (realclearpolitics.com)
This morning’s Battleground State polls…
Looks like Obama continues to pull ahead. It will be interesting where he is when next Monday’s debate comes along.
Here are the latest polls from the battleground, updated through the day:
New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)
Nevada: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (SurveyUSA)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 43% (Project for a New America)
Ohio: Obama 45%, Romney 42% (SurveyUSA)
Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Marquette Law)
Related articles
Today’s swing state polls update…
Looks like Obama’a coming back in New Hampshire.
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed
Colorado: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (We Ask America)Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (YouGov)
Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
New Hampshire: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Suffolk)
North Carolina: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (YouGov)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Quinnipiac)
Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
Virginia: Obama 46%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
OK… where is registration heading in swing states?
A Bloomberg analysis finds that Democrats hold the registration advantage over Republicans in four of six battleground states that will play a key role in the presidential election.
“Democrats have the edge over Republicans in Florida, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina. In Colorado and New Hampshire, Republicans outnumber Democrats, according to the analysis of state data. Three other battlegrounds — Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin — don’t report registration statistics by party.”
Our daily view of state election stats:
Romney came up enough to average out at a close race. There is still enough Obama lead in the majority of swing states. I’ll be curious to the stats after tomorrow night’s VP debate:
COLORADO (American Research Group): Romney 50, Obama 46
CONNECTICUT (Rasmussen): Obama 51, Romney 45, Others 1
INDIANA (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign–R): Romney 55, Obama 39
LOUISIANA (Magellan Research–R): Romney 59, Obama 36
MASSACHUSETTS (MassINC for WBUR): Obama 52, Romney 36, Others 2
MASSACHUSETTS (YouGov for Univ. of Massachusetts): Obama 55, Romney 34, Others 2 (LV); Obama 55, Romney 30, Others 3 (RV)
MINNESOTA (PPP): Obama 53, Romney 43
NEVADA (Rasmussen): Obama 47, Romney 47, Others 3
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama 47, Romney 41
NORTH CAROLINA (Gravis–R): Romney 50, Obama 41
OHIO (American Research Group): Romney 48, Obama 47, Others 1
OHIO (CNN/ORC): Obama 51, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 53, Romney 43 (RV)
OHIO (SurveyUSA–link updated): Obama 45, Romney 44, Others 3
Related articles
- Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Is Obama’s brutal poll day a blip, or a permanent re-calibration? (dailykos.com)
- New Colorado poll more evidence of Romney’s post-debate bounce (blogs.denverpost.com)
- Obama starts coming back in the swing states… (underthelobsterscope.wordpress.com)
- Romney takes slight lead in new Gallup poll (cbsnews.com)
Latest Swing State Polls show Obama ahead in 5 out of 6…
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:
Colorado: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)
Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Gravis Marketing)
Iowa: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (We Ask America)
Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 40% (We Ask America)
New Hampshire: Obama 54%, Romney 39% (WBUR)
North Carolina: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (American Research Group)
While other polls have some different results (I’ll post them when they come up), Obama in general seems to be keeping enough of a lead to finally win the election.
The debates, of course, may change all of this. We’ll see.
42 days until the vote… where do the candidates fall into electoral predictions?
Thanks to Talking Points Memo.
It looks like Obama is still increasing his possibilities… and less than 6 weeks to go.
Related articles
- Poll shows Obama with 10-point lead over Romney among Colorado independents (blogs.denverpost.com)
- A Quarter of U.S. States Hold the Keys to Presidential Outcome (blogs.voanews.com)
Does Mitt Romney’s Own Mother Undermine His Entire Campaign?
From Mansur Gidfar:
You know that guy who’s running for president? The one who touts individual achievement, without any government assistance, as the ideal embodied by truly patriotic Americans? Wouldn’t it be crazy if there were a video out there of, say, his own mother praising government welfare assistance as one of the primary reasons his father was able to establish himself in this great country of ours and eventually become a governor?
Oh wait. Skip to :50 for the good stuff.
Related articles
- I Don’t Think ‘Middle Class’ Means What Politicians Think It Means (upworthy.com)
- Mitt Romney Just Doesn’t Get It (skydancingblog.com)
- A Tea Partier Decided To Pick A Fight With A Foreign President. It Didn’t Go So Well. (womensphilanthropy.typepad.com)
- You Built That: How Mitt Romney Shook Down American Taxpayers For His Welfare Olympics [Mitt Romney] (deadspin.com)
Romney confronts a gay veteran without realizing it…
Romney should have his people check out the people he talks with…but here in New Hampshire he finds a man who fought for his country in Viet Nam, who wants marriage equality between men and men and who finally admits he is gay and loves a man.
Why should any person be able to decide what someone else does with their lives? Why should Romney be able to make that decision for them? The result… these laws give Romney and the Republicans that kind of power.
Fact is, this was picked up by the news media and makes Romney look really uncaring:
Here’s someone who will effect the votes of others and there’s Romney… a fool.
Related articles
- Obama vs. Romney 101: 4 ways they differ on gay issues (csmonitor.com)
- Pro-Romney Super PAC Attacks Obama For Supporting Marriage Equality (thinkprogress.org)
- David Koch Backs Gay Marriage (drudge.com)
- Mitt Romney Supports Gay Boy Scouts But Not Gay Marriage? (perezhilton.com)
- Dumbest PAC Ad (So Far) (ken_ashford.typepad.com)
- Here’s A Terrible Anti-Obama Ad Against Gay Marriage (thegloss.com)
- Pro-Romney Super PAC Attacks Obama For Supporting Marriage Equality (occupytvstations.com)
Romney Added to his Lies last week:
• Romney said Obama’s record includes “the first trillion deficit in history.”
That’s a blatant lie — the day Obama was inaugurated, there was a $1.3 trillion deficit Bush had left for him to clean up.
• In New Hampshire, Romney saidObama is “focused on taking away from those who have the least.”
That’s blatantly untrue in an ironic sort of way. Romney’s tax plan calls for higher taxes on those at the lowest end of the income scale. He also intends to cut food stamps, Medicaid, and educational spending, which benefit those who have the least.
• Romney summarized his message to young people: “It’s so critical, in my view, for you to consider what’s in the best interest of not just yourself, but of America, over the coming century, and it is to stop the excessive overspending.”
Annual domestic spending is already on track to become the smallest share of the economy since Dwight Eisenhower’s administration.
• Romney said once “Obamacare” is implemented, “government at all levels” will “consume” 50% of the American economy.
David Corn explained this week that this is Romney’s arguably “biggest fib,” which falls “somewhere between ‘ridiculous’ and ‘stupid.’”
• “The Obama administration has decided that it has the power to mandate what Catholic charities, schools, and hospitals must cover in their insurance plans…. Here we are, just getting started with Obamacare, and the federal government is already dictating to religious groups on matters of doctrine and conscience.”
In Massachusetts’ governor for one term, Romney took the same position Obama has adopted. He somehow forgot to mention this.
Thanks to Steve Benen over at the Rachel Maddow Show who puts out Romney’s lie list every week. Mitt seems to think we don’t pay attention.
Related articles
- Associated Press Calls Out Romney’s ‘Prairie Fire’ Speech Lies (commondreams.org)
- Mario Piperni and the Lying Liars (seniorsforademocraticsociety.wordpress.com)
- Willard Romney’s Lies of the Week (3chicspolitico.com)
- “Out Of Egypt, Into The Red Sea”: Romney’s Cowardly Speech On The Deficit (mykeystrokes.com)
- HOW MANY LIES CAN $25 MILLION BUY? **LOOKING@YOU, KARL ROVE** FACT CHECKING The Lies (3chicspolitico.com)
- Pants on Prairie Fire (slog.thestranger.com)
- SPIN METER: Rivals airbrush anti-Romney words (wtvm.com)
- The Caucus: In Iowa, Romney Decries ‘A Prairie Fire of Debt’ (thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com)
- Poll: Obama up big in swing-state New Hampshire (thehill.com)
Romney’s 18 Lies of the Week…
Steve Benen, over at the Rachel Maddow Blog, has been documenting Romney’s lies for 16 weeks. You can see this week’s list HERE.
My 2 favorites:
9. In New Hampshire, Romney said Obama is “focused on taking away from those who have the least.”
That’s blatantly untrue in an ironic sort of way. Romney’s tax plan calls for higher taxes on those at the lowest end of the income scale. He also intends to cut food stamps, Medicaid, and educational spending, which benefit those who have the least.
10. Romney also vowed, “I want to help the poor.”
First, see #9. Second, he specifically said earlier this year, “I’m not very concerned about the poor.”
I know the poor are thrilled that Romney wants to help them…help them right out of society.
What Fun! The Republicans now have Newt as a Winner :)
Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina Primary and this morning he exploited his win over all the network Sunday morning news shows. His ego glowed like a radium ion.
So Santorum has Iowa (we guess), Romney has New Hampshire, and Newt now has South Carolina. Now there is no REAL leader and we’re looking toward Florida to see what happens next.
I doubt that Ron Paul is going to quit yet. Wouldn’t it be funny if he took Florida?
There’s also the potential, now, for a brokered Republican Convention… this means that a wholly new candidate could be brought in by the Party and made nominee (Chris Christie, maybe?)
So now we have one candidate that often switches positions solely to get the vote (Mitt), one that makes Democrats look sane (Newt) and one who puts religion and ant-gay hysteria on top of governing the country (Santorum.)
As to which one of these Obama would prefer to tun against…who knows? Any one of them has great benefits for the Democrats. I’d prefer Santorum, but that is the least likely.
Quote of the Day – Is Romney’s Primary History Accurate?
“Did Rick Santorum win the Iowa caucus?
“That’s what it looks like if numbers from a caucus in the town of Moulton, Appanoose County, are correctly counted when the official certification begins Wednesday night.
“This not only would rewrite the election history of 2012 to date—it would invalidate the oft-repeated line that Mitt Romney is the only candidate to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. It would stop the inevitability narrative in its tracks.”
- John Avlon in The Daily Beast
Add this to his tax problem (and his teeny speaker’s fees) and it certainly doesn’t seem like a good week for Mitt.
Joh Huntsman is pulling out today…
After getting 17% of the New Hampshire vote, John Huntsman, probably the only true conservative in the race, is announcing his pull out later this morning (11 AM ET). Huntsman will most likely be throwing his support to Romney.
Huntsman was the candidate to make no hateful statements about Obama or his Republican competitors. His conservative positions were all about policy and he was the only candidate running with a sense that he was planning to govern the WHOLE country and not just rightists.
This is probably the best thing for Huntsman to do if he is planning on running again in 2016. He has established himself as a known candidate nationwide during the primaries so far and now he doesn’t have to continue with losses. Leaving the campaign while he is now in third place will make him a leader in the future Republican party.
Related articles
- Jon Huntsman to Drop Presidential Bid (treeofmamre.wordpress.com)
- John Huntsman Call It Quits; Set to Endorse Romney (thewesternexperience.com)
- Huntsman to exit, back Romney (politico.com)
- Huntsman to drop out of GOP race (firstread.msnbc.msn.com)
- Huntsman’s ‘ticket to ride’ started in Florida, ended before his return (tampabay.com)
- Ending Campaign, Huntsman Plans to Drop Out and Back Romney (swampland.time.com)
Taegan Goddard just posted this…
… on the Political Wire:
Romney Wins New Hampshire Primary
Based on exit polling (as of 8:15 PM), the TV networks declared Mitt Romney the winner of the Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire.
Ron Paul will finish a strong second and Jon Huntsman a more distant third.
Unless, of course, you don’t believe in exit Polling, this ends it here. Do you think Perry is smart enough to quit, or has he not thrown enough money away?
The Polls close in New Hampshire in about two hours…
… and none of the news programs have any idea of where the results will be. They are all bouncing around the idea of Romney as the winner without committing themselves to that as a final opinion… and the big controversy is who will come in second.
Will Paul screw up Romney’s lead? Will Huntsman’s apparent rise in poll numbers make him the second placer and hold Romney’s numbers down? And what about the angry drive of Gingrich who seems to want Romney destroyed?
MAKING AMERICA GREAT
On top of everything else, eyes are starting to turn to South Carolina with a question as to how many of these guys are going to be running there. Gingrich is already spending millions on anti-Romney films. Perry is using his New Hampshire campaigning to reach South Carolina audiences… he’s likely to be dead last in NH. He’s also the one most likely to disappear after tonight.
Then there’s Santorum. He doesn’t seem to have the same push he gained in Iowa and, given his views on contraception, welfare reform (ie: take money away from the poor, especially the black poor, so they will work) and his anti-gay marriage and adoption stance, he may be turning folks off – FINALLY!
If I were a Republican (that is sooo hard to say), I’d vote for Huntsman. At least he seems to be campaigning to be everyone’s president… not just right wing weirdos.
Meanwhile in South Carolina, here’s what’s polling:
- Mitt Romney‘s 27%
- Newt Gingrich‘s 23%
- Rick Santorum‘s 18%
- Ron Paul‘s 8%
- Rick Perry‘s 7%
- Stephen Colbert 5%
- Jon Huntsman‘s 4%
- Buddy Roemer‘s 1%
Stephen Colbert? Are people taking this prinmary seriously?
Quote for a Sunday (about Last Night’s Debate):
“But the real lesson of this debate is that this crew is the worst assembled for the nomination of a major party that I can recall.”
So true, so true. And this debate was only topped by this morning’s update Debate – or Romney hunt – where the five other clowns got to continue sniping.
Related articles
- Sunday’s GOP debate: 6 takeaways (politico.com)
- Oh My Sweet Jesus, We Just Finished the Last Debate, and Now There’s Another Debate? (slog.thestranger.com)
- Ledes from the NBC News/Facebook Debate (thepage.time.com)
- Double Dip Debate Dishing (hotair.com)
- Grading The Republican Debate (buzzfeed.com)
- Alan Schroeder: New Hampshire Double-header: A Tale of Two Debates (huffingtonpost.com)
A Weekend’s Entertainment – Everyone Against Romney!
The Inverted Sextet
The six remaining Republican presidential candidates start at 9 pm ET tonight in New Hampshire debating on ABC TV for two hours. Twelve hours later, at 9:00 am Sunday, they’ll take part in the NBC News/Facebook debate on Meet the Press. You can send in your questions on Facebook and attack Romney, too.
I expect the most fun from Newt Gingrich whose
Fun For All!
sole objective seems to be getting even with Romney for the negative ads his PAC pulled off in Iowa. Next will be Ron Paul, who is getting just as negative.
And, of course, we will all look for another “Oooops!” from Perry, who is really playing to the South Carolina Audience.
So have a nice weekend. I know I will.
Related articles
- GOP Candidates Sharpen Knives for Back-to-Back Debates This Weekend (ibtimes.com)
- Romney And Other GOP Hopefuls Gear Up For Weekend Debates (boston.cbslocal.com)
- GOP debates a chance to throw Romney off stride (abclocal.go.com)
- Dual debates a chance to throw Romney off stride (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- Candidates Look to Rein In Romney at NH Debates – Fox News (foxnews.com)
- Mitt Romney Could Lose Lead In Republican Presidential Contest After Dual Debates (huffingtonpost.com)
- Two Debates in 24 Hours (politicalwire.com)
- Back-To-Back Debates Could Impact Outcome Of NH Primary (boston.cbslocal.com)
Quote of the Day … perhaps one of the best of the last couple of months!
“Taking two positions on every issue, one on the left and one of the right, doesn’t make you a centrist. It makes you a charlatan.”
– David Axelrod on Mitt Romney
So we are now heading to New Hampshire where Newt Gingrich has already started to publish anti-Romney ads and the field has been reduced by one Bachmann (we thought we were going to lose Perry, too, but he’s still in, although doing his campaigning in South Carolina.)
Santorum is heading for NH and his score in Iowa is going to attract some money into his coffers, but New Hampshire is not primarily a born-again Xian state and he doesn’t really fit in.
Romney is going to have to move a little towards center to take New Hampshire, but he seems to have no trouble switching positions. Today John McCain endorsed him. You remember McCain… in the last Presidential election’s primaries, when they competed for the nomination, McCain accused Romney of “consistently flip-flopping on every issue.“
How things change.
Does it matter who wins tonight?
Maybe. Maybe one or two of these yoyos will drop out of the race. Bachmann, who should, 
has said she won’t. Huntsman, who will come in at the bottom has not really campaigned here… he may be waiting to see what happens in New Hampshire.
Newt, if he comes in lower than fourth, will likely disappear. Santorum, if not in the top three will either drop out, or skip New Hampshire and throw all his remaining money into South Carolina.
Ron Paul, who is likely to come in second, should really not be in the race at all. I don’t think he is ready to drop out yet and will probably come in second to Romney tonight. Rick Parry is an unknown, but bottom level, quantity. If I were he and came in low tonight, I’d quit or look even more stupid…ooops!
In moving to New Hampshire, someone has to appear to be a moderate. Romney and Huntsman are the only two who can do that. Newt is threatening to do nothing but really dirty Romney attack ads in NH… this may have the backlash of doing Newt in. Let’s hope.
Related articles
- With focus on Iowa, Huntsman continues NH effort (sfgate.com)
- Downplaying New Hampshire (politicalwire.com)
- Closing In On Iowa — and South Carolina (swampland.time.com)
- Newt Gingrich to Mitt Romney: “Be honest” (piersmorgan.blogs.cnn.com)
- Jon Huntsman Defends Ad Attacking Ron Paul, Knocks Iowa Caucus 2012 (huffingtonpost.com)
- All eyes on Iowa today (boston.com)
- Newt: ‘I Don’t Think I’m Going To Win’ (huffingtonpost.com)
- Jon-Christopher Bua: The Iowa Test: State of Play (huffingtonpost.co.uk)
- All eyes on Iowa today – Boston.com (boston.com)
Fun and games at the bottom of the New Hampshire list…
“Politics is the entertainment branch of industry.”
John Huntsman, toiling at the bottom of the list in Iowa, is putting his effort into New Hampshire… and to do that he has released a video called “Unelectable” attacking Ron Paul (gee, you think he’d go after Romney instead of wasting his time on the Loser In Chief.)
Here it is:
Oh Please Get This Iowa Crap Over With…
One day it’s Newt, the next it’s Ron Paul… then there’s a “surge” for Santorum, plus insufferable jabs at all of them from Bachmann. And, of course, Romney still polls in the 25% range and can’t seem to get major Conservatives behind him. Huntsman might as well be invisible and you wish Perry would be.
And without Herman Cain we no longer have the kind of comic entertainment which lets us ignore the rest of these clowns.
Add to all of this the need of all the news stations (and Fox) to keep all of this brouhaha on the air all the time without even making the least amount of difference. Not one candidate shows any sign of being able to serve all of America.
They all seem to have a view of the Constitution as a document defined by one or two articles… it’s easy to ignore the ones you don’t believe in. No matter how they comment on Obama (or in many cases each other), none of these folks would know a real Socialist if they tripped over one at a Karl Marx picnic on May Day.
And, hey, we still have New Hampshire, South Carolina and all the rest to look forward to.
