Blog Archives

Average of Swing State Polls w/electoral votes for this morning:

RCP Poll Average Electoral Votes
States Obama Romney Obama Romney
Colo.

47.7%

47.9%

0

9

Fla.

46.6%

49.1%

0

29

Iowa

49.0%

46.6%

6

0

Nev.

49.0%

46.0%

6

0

N.H.

47.8%

48.8%

0

4

N.C.

44.7%

50.3%

0

15

Ohio

48.1%

45.6%

18

0

Va.

48.0%

48.0%

0

13

Wis.

49.8%

47.0%

10

0

Swing-State Votes

40

70

Leaning/Likely State Votes

237

191

Total Overall Electoral Votes

277

261

Well, here we go again. TV pundits are saying it all depends on Obama winning Ohio… that’s the state that will make all the difference. I’m not sure I see it as a completely required Ohio win and nothing else.
Let’s see how things change after the Monday Night debate.

 

OK… where is registration heading in swing states?

 

A Bloomberg analysis finds that Democrats hold the registration advantage over Republicans in four of six battleground states that will play a key role in the presidential election.

“Democrats have the edge over Republicans in Florida, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina. In Colorado and New Hampshire, Republicans outnumber Democrats, according to the analysis of state data. Three other battlegrounds — Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin — don’t report registration statistics by party.”

 

Todays update of swing state polls:

 

Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed:

Colorado: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)

Michigan: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Foster McCollum)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (EPIC-MRA)

Pennsylvania: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Susquehanna)

Obama is pulling out to the front again, even on the Rasmussen olls in Iowa and Colorado. Rasmussen, as you know, is a primarily Republican pollster.

 

Today continues the House Republicans’ waste of time…

Well, we need jobs legislation, and we need tax resolution, and we need many more necessary things from the House of Reps… but for the last couple of days, leading to a vote today, they have been wasting time and effort.

Today’s vote will be the 33rd vote to undermine the Affordable Care Act, either through repeal or blocking funding for various provisions, since Republicans took control of the House in 2010. It won’t matter. The repeal, if passed,  is sure to be defeated in the Democratic-led Senate. And even if it made it through the Senate, the President has pledged to veto such a measure once it reaches his desk.

Yesterday I watched the arguments in the House on C-Span and spent most of the time sorting out the truth in claims by both sides. And I heard Obama speak in Iowa saying:

“I will work with anybody to improve the health care law where we can, but this law is here to stay. And it will help the vast majority of Americans feel greater security. If you’ve got health insurance, it’s going to be more secure because insurance companies can’t jerk you around because of fine print. If you don’t have health insurance, we’ll help you get it.”

No matter how much they want to eliminate Romneycare … excuse me, Obamacare … the Republicans have no plan to replace it and will eliminate health care for millions of people, especially young people and seniors and the poor.

One would think that the best thing they could do would be to create a new plan which could replace Obamacare immediately, not remove coverage from the population, and save the millions of dollars they claim they want to do. Then, once voted in, it would replace the existing law without stranding anyone.

But they are not going to do that.

I’ll watch their vote today, but I know by their sheer numbers that Republicans will pass their repeal. Then, once they send it to the Senate, maybe they can get around to the things they really should be doing. Do you think they will?

Cafe Owner After Hosting Romney Event: “I felt like it was a mocking”

This isn’t the first time I’ve heard a story like this one from Iowa during the last couple of weeks of campaigning.

Dianne Bauer opened up her cafe in Council Bluffs to Mitt Romney and his campaign for a small round table

Romney in an Iowa Cafe… just like you and me!

discussion last Friday morning before his speech at Bayliss Park.

Bauer has made her cafe available to politicians before with no problems:

“With Rick Perry he made a point of stopping in the kitchen before he ever went to the other side to address the public and the media to thank us and introduce himself to us.  That’s what I thought we would get here, just normal. This was all out, like you’d think Obama was here.”

Bauer’s issues with the campaigns staffers started the night before when they started staging the cafe for the event.

She described them as “arrogant” and said her cafe was not treated with the respect it deserved.

“Stuff got broke. My table cloths they just got ripped off, wadded up and thrown in the back room,”

The campaign told her to send them an itemized list of anything that was broken, and they would pay for it, but Bauer says that won’t fix everything.

“My dad’s picture, an emblem my dad gave me, it got broke. Those aren’t things you can replace,”

Bauer didn’t even get to meet the candidate she closed half of her restaurant down for.

“Every time we tried to go out or look, secret service was right there.”

She was complaining about the event to a friend when reporters overheard her and posted about it online. Romney apparently saw the post and called Bauer himself. He explained that it was just a misunderstanding that she did not get to meet him, but the phone call didn’t smooth things over for her.

“He responded ‘well, I’m sorry your table cloths got ripped off, wadded up and thrown in the back room’ and I took it as mocking. “We’re the ones he’s wanting to get the votes from, you’d think we would have been treated better.”

She says the whole experience left her wondering:

“With how he treated me, is that how he’s going to treat others? You know, if he gets in office is he going to be that way to us little people?”

But one thing is for sure, she won’t be letting any more politicians through her cafe doors.

Primary Poem

Today’s the day that Perry quit.

His backing goes to Newt, not Mitt.

And Newt’s ex-wife may crash his carriage…

She says he wanted Open Marriage.

Now Iowa has changed its score

and Rick leaves Mitt upon the floor.

Ron Paul takes all this at its face…

Ignoring his past views on Race.

So four are left in fume and smoke

And Saturday will be a joke.

Quote of the Day – Is Romney’s Primary History Accurate?

“Did Rick Santorum win the Iowa caucus?

 

“That’s what it looks like if numbers from a caucus in the town of Moulton, Appanoose County, are correctly counted when the official certification begins Wednesday night.

“This not only would rewrite the election history of 2012 to date—it would invalidate the oft-repeated line that Mitt Romney is the only candidate to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. It would stop the inevitability narrative in its tracks.”

- John Avlon in The Daily Beast

Add this to his tax problem (and his teeny speaker’s fees) and it certainly doesn’t seem like a good week for Mitt.

The Polls close in New Hampshire in about two hours…

… and none of the news programs have any idea of where the results will be. They are all bouncing around the idea of Romney as the winner without committing themselves to that as a final opinion… and the big controversy is who will come in second.

Will Paul screw up Romney’s lead? Will Huntsman’s apparent rise in poll numbers make him the second placer and hold Romney’s numbers down? And what about the angry drive of Gingrich who seems to want Romney destroyed?

MAKING AMERICA GREAT

On top of everything else, eyes are starting to turn to South Carolina with a question as to how many of these guys are going to be running there. Gingrich is already spending millions on anti-Romney films. Perry is using his New Hampshire campaigning to reach South Carolina audiences… he’s likely to be dead last in NH. He’s also the one most likely to disappear after tonight.

Then there’s Santorum. He doesn’t seem to have the same push he gained in Iowa and, given his views on contraception, welfare reform (ie: take money away from the poor, especially the black poor, so they will work) and his anti-gay marriage and adoption stance, he may be turning folks off – FINALLY!

If I were a Republican (that is sooo hard to say), I’d vote for Huntsman. At least he seems to be campaigning to be everyone’s president… not just right wing weirdos.

Meanwhile in South Carolina, here’s what’s polling:

Stephen Colbert? Are people taking this prinmary seriously?

A Weekend’s Entertainment – Everyone Against Romney!

The Inverted Sextet

The six remaining Republican presidential candidates start at 9 pm ET tonight in New Hampshire debating on ABC TV for two hours. Twelve hours later, at 9:00 am Sunday, they’ll take part in the NBC News/Facebook debate on Meet the Press. You can send in your questions on Facebook and attack Romney, too.

I expect the most fun from Newt Gingrich whose

Fun For All!

sole objective seems to be getting even with Romney for the negative ads his PAC pulled off in Iowa. Next will be Ron Paul, who is getting just as negative.
And, of course, we will all look for another “Oooops!” from Perry, who is really playing to the South Carolina Audience.

So have a nice weekend. I know I will.

Quote of the Day … perhaps one of the best of the last couple of months!

“Taking two positions on every issue, one on the left and one of the right, doesn’t make you a centrist. It makes you a charlatan.”

David Axelrod on Mitt Romney

So we are now heading to New Hampshire where Newt Gingrich has already started to publish anti-Romney ads and the field has been reduced by one Bachmann (we thought we were going to lose Perry, too, but he’s still in, although doing his campaigning in South Carolina.)

Santorum is heading for NH and his score in Iowa is going to attract some money into his coffers, but New Hampshire is not primarily a born-again Xian state and he doesn’t really fit in.

Romney is going to have to move a little towards center to take New Hampshire, but he seems to have no trouble switching positions. Today John McCain endorsed him. You remember McCain… in the last Presidential election’s primaries, when they competed for the nomination, McCain accused Romney of “consistently flip-flopping on every issue.

How things change.

Does it matter who wins tonight?

Maybe. Maybe one or two of these yoyos will drop out of the race. Bachmann, who should, has said she won’t. Huntsman, who will come in at the bottom has not really campaigned here… he may be waiting to see what happens in New Hampshire.

Newt, if he comes in lower than fourth, will likely disappear. Santorum, if not in the top three will either drop out, or skip New Hampshire and throw all his remaining money into South Carolina.

Ron Paul, who is likely to come in second, should really not be in the race at all. I don’t think he is ready to drop out yet and will probably come in second to Romney tonight. Rick Parry is an unknown, but bottom level, quantity. If I were he and came in low tonight, I’d quit or look even more stupid…ooops!

In moving to New Hampshire, someone has to appear to be a moderate. Romney and Huntsman are the only two who can do that. Newt is threatening to do nothing but really dirty Romney attack ads in NH… this may have the backlash of doing Newt in. Let’s hope.

The History of Conservatism since ’73…

As Rick Santorum shows himself to be the purest Conservative in Iowa, let’s remember the great model of the right that these guys revere the most: Ronald Reagan

(courtesy Kirk Anderson at Molotov Comix)

And now, as we hear from Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian, is Rick Santorum, who takes on gay marriage in a positive manner:

Rick Santorum is a super-straight dude who just happens to have a selfless obsession with other men licking each other. He now wants to give those men who have married each other something to make them look more Republican: a divorce! Yes, just like Saint Ronald Reagan, America’s only president to sneer at Jesus by divorcing. [Mark 10:11]

And folks wonder why I can’t find a way to be a Conservative. Perhaps it’s because they have been living in illusionland for the past four decades (I find it hard to get into religion, too).

What the Iowa Caucus Looks Like…

Well, it’s tomorrow… the Iowa Caucus will take place and, finally, come to a close, leaving us with what? The up and down polls have have moved one candidate after another into the lead until no matter who wins it will probably not be by much.

Ezra Klein in the Washington Post showed the condition of the Iowa polls in the last few months here:

… almost uninterpretable!

I guess I’ll put my money on… gee, I don’t know. Iowa has a record for not coming up with the final nominee (folks like Pat Robertson come to mind) and the rise in the last couple of days of Rick Santorum makes me think some of our best comedy writers are behind the whole thing.


If Gingrich wins, Obama will be thrilled.

Fun and games at the bottom of the New Hampshire list…

“Politics is the entertainment branch of industry.”

-Frank Zappa

John Huntsman, toiling at the bottom of the list in Iowa, is putting his effort into New Hampshire… and to do that he has released a video called “Unelectable” attacking Ron Paul (gee, you think he’d go after Romney instead of wasting his time on the Loser In Chief.)

Here it is:

:) :) :)

What to do if you support Ron Paul and intend to go to Caucus:

The Ron Paul campaign has put out requirements for Caucus attendees

1. Shave

2. Hide tattoos

3. Dress well

No word about what political thoughts you should have.

May be this is the time for the other candidates to come out for Tattooed folk. Or bearded guys in jeans.

On the honesty of Michelle Bachmann:

This from Ben Smith at Politico:

On her victory lap of Iowa yesterday, Straw Poll winner Rep. Michele Bachmann paid repeated tribute to her local roots, and repeatedly mentioned her family reunion that day, citing it as an excuse for her late arrival at a local party event in Waterloo.

But Bachmann’s mother and two cousins told POLITICO’s Emily Schultheis that Bachmann didn’t attend the reunion, though her husband and children did. Her spokeswoman, Alice Stewart, didn’t respond to two emails asking for an explanation of the disparity.

So who was she having a secret meeting with? God?

Why is Ames, Iowa, the new Comedy Capital of the World?

Because…

Michele Bachmann won a straw poll of Iowa Republicans Saturday, confirming her status as the front runner for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination in the state that kicks off the real voting next winter.

“Bachmann, a U.S. representative from Minnesota, edged out Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota finished a distant third, a disappointment for a man who freely invested time and money in search of a strong showing to boost his flagging campaign.”

The rest of the nation looks on with astonishment.

From a Massachusetts Businessman…

Devallon Bolles, PhD

My friend Devallon Bolles, who is a real-estate entrepreneur in Massachusetts, dropped this on Facebook after the Republican debate last night:

Enjoying the aftermath of the Iowa debates. As a MA resident for many years, I suffered under Romney’s governorship. Elected by promising jobs, state ranked 47th in job creation under him; He said he knew how to attract businesses. Businesses fled under him. Incredible that he would “run on his record.”

 

So, when Romney criticizes Obama on job creation, he has his record to stand on…No?

Result of Bachmann’s Waterloo, Iowa Comment

Mark Hoback’s FGAQ (Fried Green al-Qaedas)  is by far the best satirical blog on the web. It invariably takes the major bloops and blunders of our political life and turns them into hysterically funny dialogs like none anywhere else (and I don’t say this simply because he lists Under The LobsterScope on his blog list…Hell, I list FGAQ as well.)

This piece from June 28 is an excellent example:

Waterloo says thanks

“A mistake?” asks Waterloo resident Missy Buckner, neither expecting nor wanting an answer. “No, I don’t think it was a mistake. I know that the media likes to portray Michele Bachmann as somebody who can’t keep her facts straight, but all I know is that she’s not even president yet and already she’s managed to save at least one job – mine.”

For over ten years, Buckner has been curator of Waterloo Iowa‘s John Wayne Gacy Museum of Art, home of the largest collection of the Killer Clown‘s paintings, drawings, and artifacts in the world. Founded with an endowment from an anonymous European donor, the Gacy Museum has been an enormous failure, drawing only a few occasional curiosity seekers and losing money every year. It had been threatened with closing it’s doors forever later this summer.

“I can’t help but think that all of that’s going to change now,” says Buckner. “What Michele Bachmann has done is remind everyone about Waterloo’s most famous resident. Sure, he might have been primarily famous for killing all those teenage boys back in the seventies, but if there was justice in life – aside from the justice Gacy got at the end of his – he would be famous as Waterloo’s greatest artist. And now he will be.”

“Bachmann said that John Wayne came from Waterloo. She didn’t say which one and nobody asked her. The other John Wayne, well, he’s not from Iowa, he’s from Hollywood. And his real name was Marion Mitchell Morrison. John Wayne Gacy was using his real name. And when Bachmann said that she was just like him, I assume that she means she’s an artist, too. I mean, she doesn’t look like the sort of a person who would be a serial killer. Of course, I guess that’s the same thing they used to say about Gacy.”

“The man really had a feel for clowns, don’t you think? He knew
them intimately, knew what made them tick, because he used to dress up like a clown for parades and children’s parties. So he knew first hand how truly scary clowns can be and really captured that. He painted them for the entire fourteen years he was on death row, and they make up a large part of the museum‘s collection. We have some of his landscapes, some of his dwarfs – he liked to paint the dwarfs from Disney‘s ‘Snow White‘, often with clowns – and some of his portraits of other serial killers, but I think when people visit the Gacy Museum, it’s the clowns they’re going to want to see.”

“And people will be coming to the museum now, thanks to Michele Bachmann, I just know it. We had over a dozen visitors today, and when I asked them what brought them here, she’s the reason they gave. That’s why the Gacy Museum has authorized a token of our appreciation for helping us survive. An original piece, a Manson by Gacy. It’s a real stunner, isn’t it? I hope this small token of our appreciation lets Bachmann understand just how warmly the people of Waterloo feel about her.”

Iowa Legislator Tries To Force University To Sell $140 Million Jackson Pollock ~ Brings Outrage

From Art Knowledge News:

Republican State Senator Scott Raecker joins the Inverted Brains Club

Iowa, USA – Two national art associations said on Friday that they are “outraged” by a proposal to force the University of Iowa to sell the Jackson Pollock ‘Mural’ painting, and say it could threaten University of Iowa’s accreditation. The Association of Art Museum Directors and the American Association of Museums have vowed the support to “help prevent this permanent and irredeemable loss.” “The (associations) are alarmed to learn of the recent proposal to sell the Jackson Pollock painting ‘Mural’ to underwrite costs at The University of Iowa,” the two organizations said in a joint statement. “Such a sale would violate a fundamental ethical principle of the museum field, one which all accredited museums are bound to respect: that an accessioned work of art may not be treated as a disposable financial asset.” The 1943 painting, which was donated to The University of Iowa in 1951 by Peggy Guggenheim, is one of the most valuable, estimated at $140 million in 2008, and well-known pieces in the university’s collection. House Study Bill 84, which proposes the sale to pay for local scholarships for University of Iowa arts students, was introduced by Republican state Representative Scott Raecker, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. The idea of selling the painting first surfaced in 2008 as a way to help pay for the $743 million bill for repairing damage caused by flooding. At the time it was opposed by University of Iowa leaders and the art community and ultimately tabled.

“It’s a long-standing principle in the museum community as a whole, if you sell an object in the collection, proceeds must be used for the purchase of other pieces or care of pieces in the collection, not to, as my boss likes to say, fix the boiler,” said Dewey Blanton, a spokesman for the museum association based in Washington D.C. Blanton said such a move could prompt a complaint, which could be filed by anyone, and that would set off an accreditation review process. Blanton said virtually every major museum in the U.S. is accredited. The status qualifies those museums for certain types of philanthropic and corporate support as well as identifies it as eligible to house certain prestigious collections on loan, Blanton said. “The museum there is accredited. This is a potential consequence to be considered,” Blanton said. University of Iowa and Iowa state Board of Regents officials have declined comment about Raecker’s bill, but in 2008 UI President Sally Mason was on record saying University of Iowa does not want to sell the Pollock. University professors have not been so reticent, quoted in the Daily Iowan, Art and art history Professor Christopher Roy said the painting is a wonderful monument in the history of art, is very important culturally to the state of Iowa, that its loss would be devastating to his art students and it would cause Iowa to go from being a great state with a great program, to “third-rate losers.” “It would be a disgrace to a civilized place such as Iowa. Whoever did such a thing would go down in history as one of the most disgraceful people in the history of the state,” Roy said. “I can’t believe anyone would be stupid enough to bring it up.” Art-history Professor Craig Adcock said he was also unhappy with the bill and that “It would be a disaster to sell the painting”.

http://uima.uiowa.edu/collections/

It’s amazing that a Republican politician puts destroying culture ahead of doing something both intuitive and clearly required – raising taxes.  But then, all that paint scribbling by Pollock can’t be worth more than scholarships in this guy’s district. Wouldn’t that give him more votes?

The Political Quote of the Day… or at least the Afternoon…

By now you’ve heard the news that Newt Gingrich, who returned from a cruise vacation in the Greek Islands and then went to New Hampshire… not to campaign but to promote a documentary made with his wife, had his whole campaign staff walk out on him this afternoon (at last count, 16 people.)

Gingrich’s campaign manager Rob Johnson, strategists Sam Dawson and Dave Carney, spokesman Rick Tyler, and consultants Katon Dawson in South Carolina and Craig Schoenfeld in Iowa all quit to protest what one called a “different vision” for the campaign.

But don’t start thinking that just because the people closest to him don’t want to work with him anymore means Newt is going to stop campaigning – here is his statement posted on his Facebook page:

“I am committed to running the substantive, solutions-oriented campaign I set out to run earlier this spring. The campaign begins anew Sunday in Los Angeles.”

So who is he going to be campaigning with? At the very least, this took Anthony Weiner, who says he will NOT resign, off the front page.

Saw this on HuffPo this morning – will this effect Haley Barbour’s campaign possibilities?

"At his press conference today, Governor ...

Haley Barbour

As people gear up to enter the Republican Presidential Primary, all kinds of past facts start coming forward. One example is Haley Barbour‘s career as a lobbyist.

I’ll give you a clip here, but there are plenty of details in the article:

clipped from www.huffingtonpost.com
Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is embracing his background as one of Washington’s top lobbyists, saying his powers of persuasion would be an asset if he wins the White House.
But an Associated Press review of lobbying by the powerhouse firm Barbour helped found before his first campaign for governor shows that he represented clients on issues and interests that could provide his Republican primary opponents ample ammunition and raise eyebrows among some Republican voters.
Barbour Griffith & Rogers Inc., which Barbour helped establish in 1991, represented foreign governments on trade and immigration issues, advocated for a fuel additives association that was working in opposition to the ethanol industry dear to Iowa voters, and helped a number of universities get federal funding through a tactic that is anathema to cut-spending conservatives.
The governor’s work at the firm could open him to attacks by fellow Republicans on several fronts…
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Watching the House go at it on Health Care…

This is a moment of extreme entertainment as the House of Representatives battle over amendments coming from the Republican Congressman King of Iowa trying to stop funding for the Affordable Care Act (which he insists on calling “Obamacare” even though that name has been protested by Democrats). Rosa De Lauro of Connecticut is organizing the Democratic opposition and seems to be doing a pretty good job at it.

Republicans seem to refuse to address the cost of ending the Affordable Health Care Act in lost jobs and extreme cost increases put on Americans by Insurance companies. They are carrying out an assault on the working poor, the elderly and the ill Americans. It is a travesty that we have to go through this.

King is putting out amendment after amendment, all going after the same end: ending what he calls “Obamacare”. Since there is no act with that name, why don’t they just tell him to shut up and sit down?

Quote for the Day – I agree with the Iowa Senator:

“I’m just hoping that the president sticks to what he said in Iowa during the campaign, and throughout the campaign, that he was drawing the line at $250,000.”

- Tom Harken (D – Iowa)

However, don’t be surprised if Obama backs down and gives the Millionaires and Billionaires big tax cuts beyond $250,000.00 thinking the Republicans will give him unemployment assistance and  a variety of expiring tax breaks for low-wage and middle-income workers as part of any deal.

Here’s a great piece from “I Tried Being Tasteful…”

A great blog entry by TexasTrailerParkTrash.
You can go to her site for links: http://youcallthatart.wordpress.com
clipped from youcallthatart.wordpress.com

Return To The Good Ol’ Days of Ignorance

Whiplash inducing quote of the day from Republican Mike Pence, speaking in Iowa:

To those who say we should focus on fiscal issues, instead of the right to life, I say, ‘What is more fiscally responsible than rolling back this administration’s effort to expand funding for abortion at home and abroad?’” Pence said.
“What is more fiscally responsible than denying any and all funding to Planned Parenthood of America?”
Could this guy be any more of an idiot?

Here is an excerpt from Planned Parenthood’s mission statement:
“We are a trusted health care provider, an informed educator, a passionate advocate, and a global partner helping similar organizations around the world.
For more than 90 years, Planned Parenthood has promoted a commonsense approach to women’s health and well-being, based on respect for each individual’s right to make informed, independent decisions about health, sex, and family planning.”
Yessir, Mr. Pence.  Let’s party like it’s 1920.
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