Category Archives: Polls
The Final Results of the Election…
If you haven’t seen where everything finally ended up after Florida was called (which took an awfully long time and right up to the very end the GOP said Romney had it… but he didn’t), then here it is:
This, to me, is a sure sign that Obama has a mandate to finish his agenda. To win by 126 electoral votes is not insignificant… it is a real rollover.
Now we will listen to Boehner claim that he is ready to cooperate, but will keep the House just a opposed to increasing taxes on the very rich and solving the rest of the economic problems. Will the House Republicans finally support Obama’s goal to increase jobs? Looks like they are going to stay just as opposed. Didn’t they learn anything from the election?
Mitch McConnell will probably keep the Republicans in the Senate from letting things go through, although they are still in the minority. McConnell is up for reelection in Kentucky in 2014, so maybe he will cooperate a little bit just to show that he’s not a schmuck. We’ll wait and see.
Related articles
- Boehner and McConnell Dissed Obama on Election Night – Refused Phone Calls from the President, Claiming They Were Asleep (pensitoreview.com)
- Mitch McConnell and John Boehner’s strategy worked (washingtonpost.com)
- Obama Tried To Call Mitch McConnell And John Boehner On Election Night, But They Lied That They Were Sleeping (tribuneofthepeople.com)
- McConnell warns Obama on taxes (politico.com)
- McConnell (kind of) promises to work with Obama (tv.msnbc.com)
- Mitch McConnell offers a helpful reminder of why Senate Democrats must reform the filibuster now (dailykos.com)
- Boehner suggests Republicans will Accept More Revenue, Work Together (he must not have met Mitch McConnell) (freakoutnation.com)
- Election Gave Obama and Boehner Chance for a Do-Over – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
- Obama’s mandate (wnd.com)
Obama Wins! Romney Concedes! The world can go on!
Congratulations Mr. President!
Here are Nate Silver’s totals as of 4:30 AM in the NY Times:
It is a win that is smaller than 2008′s but larger than many expected!
Getting this election over with is becoming an evening of sheer misery…
It’s not enough that I am going in for tests before my Friday brain surgery at 6:30 AM tomorrow and go through four different doctors and three tests by 2:30 PM…just getting my mind in the mood for that doesn’t let me bond with the TV pundits who are arguing out the campaign results they can’t really call.
Thinking about how miserable it would be if Romney won, but that is not nearly as bad as thinking about how graceless in their concessions the losers will be if Obama and the Democratic Congressional candidates win. Nobody seems to really be trying to tie the country together and make us the 
UNITED states that we have to become.
BTW, I want to really think the hundreds of you who have wished me well by e-mail, in Facebook, and those of you who have commented on this blog. I never really knew how many of you visit the LobsterScope and it’s daily changing graphic background and what my daughter calls the rantings of an old man. I hope I’ll be back at full speed next week some time, but it will be hard to keep it up now through the weekend. Don’t be surprised if a day has no or only one post… and don’t plan on anything Friday or Saturday.
Those of you who listen to me on the radio at WSHC 89.7 Shepherdstown, either locally or on the worldwide live feed at http://897wshc.org , won’t hear me this weekend. I got friends and fellows to cover my time on the air and I thank all of them.
If you are in a state that has late polls open and you haven’t voted yet, get out there and do it. People have died for your right to vote!
Bye now… Bill.
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- Sacred Text Describes Successful Brain Surgery in Ancient Tibet (history.com)
- One year since my brain surgery (abelsmomfight.blogspot.com)
It’s the beginning of the most important day of the year…
Waking up to Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire:
Nate Silver now projects President Obama’s margin of victory to be two or three percentage points
in the popular vote, approximating the margin that George W. Bush achieved in defeating John Kerry in 2004.
In addition, he gives Obama a 91.6% chance to win the necessary 270 electoral votes for re-election.
John Avlon: “The final polls are out and behind the national horserace is a fascinating dynamic — Mitt Romney is narrowly winning independent voters while President Obama is winning centrist voters by a nearly 20-point margin.”
“This is significant because in past elections independents and centrist voters have been largely synonymous-overlapping cohorts, reflecting the belief of many independents that the two parties are too polarized and disproportionately dominated by their respective special interests. But what I think we’re seeing this year is the extended impact of the tea party – a growth in the number of independent conservatives that has moved the overall independent voting block slightly to the right. In turn, centrist voters are more likely to vote for Obama precisely because of the polarizing impact of the tea party and the intransigence of many conservative congressmen when it came to working in a good faith spirit of principled compromise with the Obama administration.”
OK… I’m off for my morning appointments (gee…how do people get up this early?). – Bill
Related articles
- FiveThirtyEight: Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com)
- US elections: after the campaign, the hush of polling day descends (guardian.co.uk)
- Centrists Embrace Obama (thedailybeast.com)
I might have limited posting for a while…
Due to a medical emergency (the discovery of a potential brain tumor… aint that a kick in the head?) I’m going to be going in for several days of testing, etc., but I’ll try to keep up with you folks. I want you to know how much I appreciate the readers of Under The LobsterScope, and your e-mail to me is always welcome, as well as your likes and comments.
DON’T FORGET TO VOTE THIS MORNING IF YOU HAVEN’T ALREADY.
I don’t want to wake up in a hospital and find that Mitt the Twit is president.
Nate Silver
I’m glad that Nate Silver in the NY Times, 538 column, is still got his usually very accurate poll predictions on Obama carrying most of the swing states… and his prediction that our president will be re-elected.
Your e-mail is always appreciated… Bill.
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Tomorrow is Election Day… so where do the swing state polls stand today?
This will probably be the last time I put these up. Now it’s your turn. Make sure to get out and vote and hopefully our man will win.
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:
Florida: Romney 52%, Obama 47% (InsiderAdvantage)
Florida: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)
Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)
Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
Looks like Florida is the one to keep an eye on. While Romney leads in 2 out of three polls, this is a REAL swing state that could go either way. I’m not sure the tie in North Carolina really goes to Obama. Nate seems to think it will.
This morning’s Nate Silver‘s poll roundup in Five Thirty Eight is strongly in favor of Obama:
Nate Silver is giving the Election to Obama.
Here are the Real Clear Politics Polls for today:
Related articles
- Obama Leading In 14 New Swing State Polls, Tied In The Other Two (outsidethebeltway.com)
- Georgians swarm swing states for final election push – Atlanta Journal Constitution (ajc.com)
- Interviews with swing state voters: The Floridian who doesn’t want Medicare to change (washingtonpost.com)
Political results of the day: swing state polls and word from Bloomberg…
Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of NYC, who has not supported either candidate today endorsed Obama for the Presidency. It seems Obama’s actions on Sandy pushed him over the edge.
And here are today’s swing state numbers:
Latest polls from the battleground states:
Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 47% (Rasmussen)
Colorado: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (CallFire)
Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (CallFire)
Iowa: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
Michigan: Obama 53%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (SurveyUSA)
New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)
North Carolina: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (High Point University)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Newsmax/Zogby)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)
Virginia: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)
Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)
Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)
Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 42% (St. Norbert College)
Five days to go… then we’ll have the only poll that really counts… our votes.
Here are today’s swing state poll results…
Sorry I took so long today getting these out. I’ll try to keep on top of these in the future.
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (University of Cincinnati)
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)
Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 47% (Gravis)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)
Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Detroit News)
North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)
Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Franklin and Marshall)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)
Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 44% (Roanoke)
Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)
Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 43% (Marquette Law)
A new Gallup poll finds a majority of Americans continue to believe that President Obama will win re-election Tuesday over Mitt Romney, by 54% to 34%.
Related articles
- Polls: President Obama Has Narrow Lead Over Mitt Romney In Ohio (atlantablackstar.com)
- Obama up in Ohio, tied in Virginia, Florida: Quinnipiac poll (blogs.suntimes.com)
- Swing state polls show Obama up five in Ohio, four in Pennsylvania (washingtonpost.com)
We’re getting closer to the election… so here are some swing state polls:
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:
Florida: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Newsmax/Zogby)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)
Another state that has never been considered a swing state but appears close:
Oregon: Obama 47%, Romney 41% (Elway)
This looks better for Florida, which is getting closer, and Ohio. If Obama picks up both of these he would have the election.
And here is the current electoral vote possibility:
Swing state polls…
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:
North Carolina: Obama 45%, Romney 45% (Elon University)
Ohio: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
Here are some National polls… but the storm could change this
Here are the latest national tracking polls of the presidential race:
Back to the White House
Washington Post: Romney 49%, Obama 48%
Politico/George Washington University: Obama 49%, Romney 48%
Public Policy Polling: Romney 49%, Obama 48%
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 49%, Romney 46%
Obama, however, has pulled away from campaign speeches so he could get back to the White House to manage the storm response for the East coast. This is a real sign of his being presidential… after all, he has a full-time job working for us. Romney being unemployed right now will keep up campaigning, but it will be interesting to see how he responds to the President’s activities.
Related articles
- Hurricane Sandy blows US election off course – Reuters (reuters.com)
- Tight polls, looming storm shake campaigns down the homestretch (thehill.com)
Some swing state updates…Ohio looks like Romney is sneaking up.
The strong lead Obama was carrying in Ohio is seen as a tie in this poll. While other polls may be different, this one from the Cincinnati Enquirer is still upsetting:
You get what you pay for…
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Cincinnati Enquirer)
Minnesota: Obama 47%, Romney 44% (Minneapolis Star Tribune)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Priorities USA Action)
I’m really hoping that all these polls are not reality at all. They all seem to be set up to one side, left or right, by pollsters before they are taken.
For instance:
“…the Cincinnati Enquirer, a reliably conservative paper that virtually always endorses Republicans. In 2008, they deftly endorsed John McCain without one word mentioning the walking time-bomb he had chosen as his Vice Presidential candidate.”
- The Daily Kos
See what I mean?
Related articles
- Rasmussen All Tied In Ohio! (davidscommonsense.net)
- Minnesota Poll: Obama leading, but Romney sees gains – Minneapolis Star Tribune (startribune.com)
- Oct. 27: Minnesota Moonlights as Swing State, but Ohio and Virginia Are More Crucial (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com)
What would the morning be without swing state poll numbers?
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:
Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (OnSight Public Affairs)
Colorado: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Purple Strategies)
Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46% (Sunshine State News)
Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Gravis)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Gravis)
New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (New England College)
North Carolina: Romney 53%, Obama 45% (Gravis)
North Carolina: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Civitas)
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (American Research Group)
Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Purple Strategies)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (CNN/ORC)
Virginia: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Purple Strategies)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Newsmax/Zogby)
Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)
Can you believe it? Only 9 days of polls to go.
Afternoon swing state polls updated here…
Check these out, some of them have changed around since this morning:
Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (OnSight Public Affairs)
Colorado: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Purple Strategies)
Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46% (Sunshine State News)
Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Gravis)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Gravis)
New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (New England College)
North Carolina: Romney 53%, Obama 45% (Gravis)
North Carolina: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Civitas)
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (American Research Group)
Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Purple Strategies)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (CNN/ORC)
Virginia: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Purple Strategies)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Newsmax/Zogby)
Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)
Just Returned From Early Voting…
After having done the Friday Morning radio show on WSHC with John Case, Elly and I set out to go to Charles Town, WV, for a visit to the Jefferson County Courthouse for early voting. Since John and his wife, Carol, were already planning to vote today, Elly and I arranged to meet them at the polling place and to have lunch afterward at our favorite Charles Town restaurant, Mezzaluna.
We spent over an hour from getting into the Court House line through voting at the booth. I never expected that it would take that much time, but the lines were very, very long. It seems like many of our fellow citizens were there to vote early… but remember, this was the third day of early voting and it was still mobbed this morning.
But we HAVE voted and I feel very good about it. The odds are very low that West Virginia will agree with me on most of the votes… particularly it is not considered likely that WV will go for Obama. But you have to vote your conscience anyway, and I did.
The Courthouse is a famous location in Jefferson County since it was here that John Brown was tried and convicted for the Harpers Ferry raid during the Civil War. Now it’s famous as the place where Elly and I do early voting.
I hope everyone out there remembers to vote, either early or on election day.
Related articles
- Is Early Voting A ‘Quiet Revolution?’ (npr.org)
- Obama is First Sitting President to Vote Early: PHOTO (towleroad.com)
- Maryland To Monitor Storm Impact On Early Voting (baltimore.cbslocal.com)
Are you ready for the morning swing state polls?
Here they are:
Colorado: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)
Veterans are becoming an observed community.
Colorado: Obama 46%, Romney 43% (Project New America)
Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist)
Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49% (Gravis)
Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Project New America)
Iowa:: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)
Michigan: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Foster McCollum)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist)
North Carolina: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling)
Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Rasmussen)
Florida’s in question this morning… but it’s fairly close. Colorado is moving toward Obama.. first time all week.
We’ll look for updates later.
Morning report on swing state polls… With afternoon update
Here are the latest polls from the battleground. These will be updated when more numbers are available:
Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49% (Gravis)
Michigan: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Foster McCollum)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)
Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)New Hampshire: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Lake Research)
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 44% (Time)
Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)
Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Lake Resaearch)
Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 43% (Old Dominion
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Newsmax/Zogby)
Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)
Wow. Four different pollsters give Ohio to Obama. The word on early voting is that it’s 2 to 1 in Obama’s favor.
Only 12 days left to the official election day.
So what does the world think of the USA?
Remember what Romney said during the foreign policy debate? Think about this:
“I look around the world, I don’t see our influence growing around the world. I see our influence receding. [...] But unfortunately, in nowhere in the world is America’s influence greater today than it was four years ago.”
Well, I wonder what the influence of America is in the real world? Here’s a chart by Ezra Klein evaluating 16 countries we deal with:
Gee… looks like they like us. As a matter of fact, some countries like us very much… and they really like Obama:
Pakistan, however, seems to go more for Romney. Why? Because he criticizes Obama’s mid-east accomplishments?
Very Interesting.
Related articles
- Why Romney Lost the Foreign Policy Debate (shortlittlerebel.wordpress.com)
- U.S. election: Romney outplayed by Obama in foreign policy debate (thestar.com)
- Obama Has Massive Lead in Global Poll (weeklystandard.com)
- Best Romney Quotes … (youviewedblog.wordpress.com)
- Who Won the Foreign Policy Debate? The [Instant] Surveys Say … (slate.com)
Latest Swing State Polls (Updated for the Afternoon)
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states. There will likely be more later. I’ll keep an eye out:
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)
New Hampshire: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Lake Research)
Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)
Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 43% (Old Dominion University)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Newsmax/Zogby)
I’m not sure I was expecting it, but it looks like Virginia has come around… and one poll (Lake Research) has brought New Hampshire back to Obama.
Some words about this blog and me…
I often get e-mail from folks out there in the web world who want to know about Under The LobsterScope and why 
I keep it going and put a major part of each day into it. It is for that reason that I’ve decided to say a few things that will clarify my relationship with UTL and, perhaps, encourage you to get involved as a commentor.
I started this blog through another editing site, Blogspot, during the 2004 presidential election year. I did several thousand entries over five years or so and then something happened. For some reason, someone got into my blog at Blogspot and did some fairly confusing stuff leaving it impossible for me to post on. I cancelled my relationship with Blogspot and over 4000 posts ago I started UTL up again through WordPress where it remains today.
While I was interested in electoral politics (originally in Maryland before my wife and I moved to West Virginia), my biggest interest at the time – and even now, a little – was in theatre directing. I got to do a couple of musicals and some plays at local community theatres and spent a lot of time attending theatre events (one of the reasons we moved to the Shepherdstown, WV, area was to be closer to the Contemporary American Theater Festival which we attend every year.
I also have a great interest in the visual arts… Elly’s background is as a painter and visual artist. That means heading off to galleries locally, in DC and other places. Add to the visual stuff an interest in music and poetry and dance. The arts in general are very important parts of my life.
As to politics, during the past couple of years beginning with the election of Barack Obama, I have become more and more an active Democrat and have felt it is my obligation, since this is a published item read by thousands of people a week, to expose the really awful things Republicans and extreme conservatives are trying to pull off.
Several of you have also noted that I often expose dangerous things being done by religious organizations. As you probably know I am a non-believer… an atheist, a humanist… and cannot understand how people with developed intellectual capacity can believe this stuff. I have no problem exposing things that might make readers see what I see. I am, however, as opposed to pushing my atheism on others as I am of them pushing their religious beliefs on me.
Now that my current age and health keeps me in the house most of the days of the week, I have much time to read other web sites, magazines and other publications, many of which I quote or comment on in the blog. On an average day I do at least 5 posts.
I have established some regular features in this blog that I hope you enjoy. Cartoon(s) of the Week is the one people think of first when I talk about regular features. I have been interested in editorial cartoons for many years. During the current election I have regularly been posting poll results which I see by the search term roundups many of you are looking for. And, of course, there is my regular posting of celebrity obituaries.
If there is any kind of post I do that you would like to see become a regular feature, just let me know and it’s likely to happen.
- Bill
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This morning’s first swing state polls:
Here are the latest polls from the battleground:
How about Electoral Vote and Senate predictions…
Nevada: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (American Research Group)
New Hampshire: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (American Research Group)
Both of these show changes: Romney up in New Hampshire and Obama leading in Nevada. Also, remember: 270 Electoral votes to win.
When more of these polls come out today I will make them available either in a new post or updating this one.
Related articles
- Obama up in battleground New Hampshire (politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com)
Some new swing state polls for the morning:
Got a few of these here:
Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (Rasmussen)
Iowa: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)
Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 43% (Angus Reid)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Angus Reid)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (CBS News/Quinnipiac)
Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Morning Call/Muhlenberg)
Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Pulse Opinion Research)
Virginia: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)
Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Angus Reid)
Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (Pulse Opinion Research)
Here are the latest national polls of the presidential race:
Politico/George Washington University: Romney 49%, Obama 47%
Public Policy Polling: Obama 48%, Romney 48%
Looks like there’s a question about Ohio, depending on which poll you read. Strong leads in both Michigan and Pennsylvania. As for the two National Polls, it looks like Romney comes off stronger. Will tonight’s debate have an effect on these?
Related articles
- Ohio: Obama leads one poll, tied in another (usatoday.com)
- Swing state polling snapshot – Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) (blogs.ajc.com)
Average of Swing State Polls w/electoral votes for this morning:
| RCP Poll Average | Electoral Votes | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| States | Obama | Romney | Obama | Romney |
| Colo. |
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| Fla. |
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| Iowa |
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| Nev. |
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| N.H. |
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| N.C. |
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| Ohio |
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| Va. |
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| Wis. |
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| Swing-State Votes |
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| Leaning/Likely State Votes |
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| Total Overall Electoral Votes |
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Related articles
- Chance of Split Electoral, Popular Vote Very Real (politicalwire.com)
- Why Ohio is the most important state in the country (washingtonpost.com)
- Campaign Moves into Final Phase, Driven by Electoral Math (swampland.time.com)
- Obama Behind the Eight Ball (realclearpolitics.com)
So what is the chance of Obama winning right now?
Bob Cesca published Nate Silver‘s graphic projecting the election winner which appeared in the NY Times. I’d like to reproduce it as well since it seems to show the start of a legitimate bounce for Obama after the last debate.
Here is Nate Silver’s most recent projection:
Monday’s debate (the last one) may give another push to Obama if he pulls of a victory as he did in the second round. And remember, the election is only 18 days away. Focus on both campaigns will become very tight in the next few days.
Related articles
- NATE SILVER: Obama’s Odds Of Winning Have Climbed Back To 66% (businessinsider.com)
- NATE SILVER: Here’s The Truth About That Gallup Poll Showing Mitt Romney Miles Ahead Of Obama (businessinsider.com)
- Nate Silver, Jon Stewart And The Power Of Polling (pinkbananaworld.com)
- About that Gallup poll: Is Romney really up by 7? And will Obama win the election anyway? (washingtonpost.com)
Some National Poll results for this morning:
Here are the latest national polls of the presidential race:
Hartford Courant/UConn: Obama 48%, Romney 45%Public Policy Polling: Obama 48%, Romney 47%
Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Romney 48%
OK… very close on the National front. First time I’ve seen a polling result from my long lost home state, Connecticut (I say “long lost”, but I mean “very much missed.”)
Related articles
- Romney edge expands post-debate in Rasmussen tracking poll (hotair.com)
- Public Policy Polling Has Obama Winning 48-47 (nationalreview.com)
- RASMUSSEN: Obama And Romney Are Tied (businessinsider.com)
